Eating is an agricultural act - Wendell Berry

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

mumbai LS elections

constituency - key candidates (my forecasted winner in bold).
note that the forecasted winner does not indicate my personal preferences in any way.

1. Mumbai South - milind deora (INC), mohan rawle (SS), bala nandgaonkar (MNS)
both deora and rawle are sitting MPs in this redrawn/delimited consituency. deora is charming and erudite and all that, but is likely to lose a close contest even though MNS will take away some of the marathi votes from SS.

2. Mumbai South Central - eknath gaikwad (INC), suresh gambhir (SS)
gaikwad was the giant killer from 2004. he beat, manohar joshi (ex- CM of maharashtra). gambhir is a newbie and may find it tough to wrest this from the incumbent.

3. Mumbai North Central - priya dutt (INC), mahesh jethmalani (BJP)
almost a no-contest.

4. Mumbai North East - kirit somaiyya (BJP), sanjay patil (NCP), shishir shinde (MNS)
somaiyya is a veteran social-political figure in this area and will run this through quite confortably.

5. Mumbai North West - gurudas kamat (INC), gajanan kirtikar (SS), abu asmi (SP)
close to call. i would think kirtikar will tubmle the might kamat as asmi is likely to be the spoiler with cutting heavily into the INC traditional north indian/muslim vote bank. my erstwhile acquaintance, rishi aggarwal is also contesting as an independant.

6. Mumbai North - ram naik (BJP), sanjay inrupam (INC)

others predicting.

since the last 2 months - internet and TV based campaigns are all over the place. we have been buffeted by the jaagore, one billion vote movements.
but check out the polling percentages in the silicon cities of india - pune and bangalore.
abysmal and atrocious. this is a lesson in understanding that "great campaigns do not translate to great results". it is like the model in the ad being more popular that the brand advertised for.
and large scale social changes take years to fruition.

other links:
1. election commission of india
2. indian election
3. websites of political parties


Preeti Aghalayam aka kbpm said...

I like what you are saying about e-campaigns & silicon cities - its a good point.
Mumbai is on Celebrity buzz post 26/11. Have to see how that translates to voting %age!

csm said...

i don't expect mumbai polling %ages to be any different from the other cities.
this is inspite of all the buzz.

csm said...

mumbia voting %age has lived up to my predictions.
sad, but it will take more sustained effort to make a dent in people's attitudes.

Preeti Aghalayam aka kbpm said...

its really low!!